基本信息
任宏利  男  博导  国家气候中心
电子邮件: renhl@cma.gov.cn
通信地址: 北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 国家气候中心
邮政编码: 100081

招生信息

   
招生专业
070601-气象学
招生方向
气候动力学,气候预测,ENSO,大气低频振荡

教育背景

2001-09--2006-06   兰州大学   研究生/理学博士
1997-09--2001-06   兰州大学   本科/理学学士

工作经历

   
工作简历
2001-09~2006-06,兰州大学, 研究生/理学博士
1997-09~2001-06,兰州大学, 本科/理学学士

专利与奖励

   
奖励信息
(1) 北京市科学技术协会“第十三届北京青年优秀科技论文评选一等奖”, 一等奖, 其他, 2015
(2) 中国气象局“气象部门青年英才”, 特等奖, 部委级, 2014
(3) 北京气象学会中青年气象科技优秀论文, 二等奖, 其他, 2014
(4) 清华大学—浪潮集团计算地球科学青年人才奖, 特等奖, 研究所(学校), 2012
(5) 中国气象学会颁发的2008-2009年度“涂长望青年气象科技奖”, 二等奖, 部委级, 2009
(6) 国家教育部颁发的“全国优秀博士学位论文奖”, 特等奖, 部委级, 2008
(7) 北京大学谢义炳奖励基金会颁发的“2007年度谢义炳青年气象科技奖三等奖”, 三等奖, 研究所(学校), 2007
(8) 中国科学院大气物理研究所颁发的“第六届大气物理研究所‘学笃风正’全国青年大气科学研讨会优秀论文奖”, 特等奖, 研究所(学校), 2007

出版信息

   
发表论文
(1) Diverse MJO Genesis and Predictability, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2023, 通讯作者
(2) Seasonal modulation of mixed-layer temperature anomaly in Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region by bimodal Kuroshio extension, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2023, 通讯作者
(3) Climatological diagnostics and subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of Madden-Julian Oscillation events, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2023, 通讯作者
(4) Dynamical Predictability of Leading Interannual Variability Modes of the Asian-Australian Monsoon in Climate Models, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2023, 通讯作者
(5) Seasonal predictions of sea surface height in BCC-CSM1.1m and their modulation by tropical climate dominant modes, ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2023, 通讯作者
(6) Low-Frequency Variability in the Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Real or Artificial?, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2023, 通讯作者
(7) A CEOF-based method for measuring amplitude and phase properties of the QBO, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2023, 通讯作者
(8) MJO Phase Swings Modulate the Recurring Latitudinal Shifts of the 2020 Extreme Summer-Monsoon Rainfall Around Yangtse, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2022, 通讯作者
(9) Editorial: ENSO Nonlinearity and Complexity: Features, Mechanisms, Impacts and Prediction, FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE, 2022, 通讯作者
(10) Influence of Madden–Julian Oscillation on Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer, ATMOSPHERE, 2022, 第 2 作者
(11) The dynamical-statistical subseasonal prediction of precipitation over China based on the BCC new-generation coupled model, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2022, 通讯作者
(12) Responses of East Asian Climate to SST Anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension Region during Boreal Autumn, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2022, 通讯作者
(13) Oceanic Heat Content as a Predictor of the Indian Ocean Dipole, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 2022, 通讯作者
(14) Distinct MJOs Under the Two Types of La Nina, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2022, 第 2 作者
(15) Connection between the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the late autumn snow cover anomalies over the central Tibetan Plateau, ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2022, 通讯作者
(16) Seasonal-Interannual Predictions of Summer Precipitation Over the Tibetan Plateau in North American Multimodel Ensemble, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2022, 通讯作者
(17) Dynamic Synoptic Eddy Feedbacks Contributing to Maintenance and Propagation of Intraseasonal NAO, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2022, 通讯作者
(18) Primary Interannual Variability Patterns of the Growing-Season NDVI over the Tibetan Plateau and Main Climatic Factors, REMOTE SENSING, 2022, 通讯作者
(19) Impacts of late-spring North Eurasian soil moisture variation on summer rainfall anomalies in Northern East Asia, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2022, 通讯作者
(20) Roles of Atmospheric Variability and Arctic Sea Ice in the Asymmetric Arctic-Eurasia Temperature Connection on Subseasonal Time Scale, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2022, 通讯作者
(21) Multi-predictor ensembles improving seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Bohai Sea Rim based on statistical downscaling of BCC_CSM1.1m, ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2022, 通讯作者
(22) Diagnosing SST Error Growth during ENSO Developing Phase in the BCC_CSM1.1(m) Prediction System, Diagnosing SST Error Growth during ENSO Developing Phase in the BCC_CSM1.1(m) Prediction System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2022, 通讯作者
(23) Diagnosing the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer precipitation in southern China, THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2019, 通讯作者
(24) Indian Ocean SST modes and Their Impacts as Simulated in BCC CSM1.1(m) and HadGEM3, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2018, 通讯作者
(25) A Coupled Dynamic Index for ENSO Periodicity, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2018, 第 3 作者
(26) El Niño-Southern Oscillation Complexity, Nature, 2018, 第 1 作者
(27) Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in Southeastern China and its Predictability in CFSv2, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2018, 通讯作者
(28) Multi-pentad prediction of precipitation variability over Southeast Asia during boreal summer using BCC_CSM1.2, DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2018, 通讯作者
(29) Remarkable Impacts of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on Interdecadal Variability of Summer Rainfall in Southwestern China, ATMOSPHERE, 2018, 通讯作者
(30) Diagnosing Changes of Winter NAO in Response to Different Climate Forcings in a Set of Atmosphere-Only Timeslice Experiments, ATMOSPHERE, 2018, 通讯作者
(31) Structure and dynamics of a wave train along the wintertime Asian jet and its impact on East Asian climate, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 
(32) An extreme negative Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2016: dynamics and predictability, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 通讯作者
(33) 北大西洋涛动和南半球环状模不同位相配置对我国南方夏季降水的协同影响, 地球物理学报, 2017, 通讯作者
(34) 超强厄尔尼诺事件海洋学特征分析与预测回顾, 2017, 第 1 作者
(35) Dynamical Feedback between Synoptic Eddy and Low-Frequency Flow as Simulated by BCC CSM1.1(m), ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2017, 通讯作者
(36) Understanding positive feedback between PNA and synoptic eddies by eddy structure decomposition method, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 通讯作者
(37) BCC二代气候系统模式的季节预测评估和可预报性分析, Evaluation and Predictability Analysis of Seasonal Prediction by BCC Second-Generation Climate System Model, 大气科学, 2017, 第 2 作者
(38) Improving ENSO prediction in CFSv2 with an analogue-based correction method, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 通讯作者
(39) Prediction of Primary Climate Variability Modes at the Beijing Climate Center, JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 通讯作者
(40) 利用高原积雪信号改进我国南方夏季降水预测的新方法及其在2014年降水预测中的应用试验, Improve the Prediction of Summer Precipitation in South China by a New Approach with the Tibetan Plateau Snow and the Applicable Experiment in 2014, 大气科学, 2017, 第 2 作者
(41) Detecting Primary Precursors of January Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in China, Detecting Primary Precursors of January Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in China, JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 第 2 作者
(42) 2014~2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件研究及其预测给予我们的启示, 中国科学. 地球科学, 2017, 第 2 作者
(43) Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation upon Winter Extreme Rainfall in Southern China: Observations and Predictability in CFSv2, ATMOSPHERE, 2017, 通讯作者
(44) ENSO and annual cycle interaction: the combination mode representation in CMIP5 models, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2016, 通讯作者
(45) Improving ENSO periodicity simulation by adjusting cumulus entrainment in BCC_CSMs, DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2016, 通讯作者
(46) Interdecadal Variations in the Relationship between the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation and Temperature in South-Central China, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2016, 通讯作者
(47) Predictability of winter temperature in China from previous autumn Arctic sea ice, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2016, 通讯作者
(48) Distinct persistence barriers in two types of ENSO, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2016, 通讯作者
(49) MJO prediction skill, predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2016, 通讯作者
(50) Subseasonal variability and predictability of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in BCC_AGCM2.2, DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2016, 通讯作者
(51) MJO ensemble prediction in BCC-CSM1.1(m)using different initialization schemes, MJO ensemble prediction in BCC-CSM1.1(m)using different initialization schemes, 大气和海洋科学快报:英文版, 2016, 第 1 作者
(52) SST-forced interdecadal deepening of the winter India-Burma trough since the 1950s, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2016, 通讯作者
(53) Madden–Julian Oscillation simulated in BCC climate models, DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2015, 通讯作者
(54) Quantifying synoptic eddy feedback onto the low-frequency flow associated with anomalous temperature events in January over China, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2015, 第 2 作者
(55) A hybrid statistical downscaling model for prediction of winter precipitation in China, INTERNATIONALJOURNALOFCLIMATOLOGY, 2015, 通讯作者
(56) Contrasting impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on surface air temperature anomalies in southern China between early and mid-Late winter, Journal of Climate, 2015, 通讯作者
(57) Eddy-induced growth rate of low-frequency variability and its mid-late winter suppression in the northern hemisphere, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 第 1 作者
(58) 提高月预报业务水平的动力相似集合方法, The dynamical-analogue ensemble method for improving operationalmonthly forecasting., 气象学报, 2014, 第 1 作者
(59) Application of the Analogue-Based Correction of Errors Method in ENSO Prediction, Application of the Analogue-Based Correction of Errors Method in ENSO Prediction, 大气和海洋科学快报:英文版, 2014, 第 1 作者
(60) Recharge Oscillator Mechanisms in Two Types of ENSO, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2013, 通讯作者
(61) ENSO Regime Change since the Late 1970s as Manifested by Two Types of ENSO, JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN, 2013, 通讯作者
(62) Anatomy of Synoptic Eddy-NAO Interaction through Eddy Structure Decomposition, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2012, 通讯作者
(63) Transformed eddy-PV flux and positive synoptic eddy feedback onto low-frequency flow, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2011, 通讯作者
(64) Intraseasonal characteristics of the water vapor transport associated with the low-frequency rainfall regimes over Southern China in summer, CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION, 2009, 第 2 作者
(65) A kinematic mechanism for positive feedback between synoptic eddies and NAO, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 通讯作者
(66) Theoretical Basis and Application of an Analogue-Dynamical Model in the Lorenz System, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2009, 
(67) 基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值实验, Analogue correction of errors based on seasonal climatic predictable components and numerical experiments, 物理学报, 2009, 第 2 作者
(68) 短期气候预测中基于预报因子的误差订正方法研究, 自然科学进展, 2007, 第 1 作者
(69) 动力相似预报的策略和方法研究, 中国科学. D辑, 地球科学, 2007, 第 1 作者
(70) 基于多个参考态更新的动力相似预报方法及应用, 物理学报, 2006, 第 1 作者
(71) Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction, CHINESE PHYSICS, 2006, 
(72) 中国夏季大尺度低频雨型及其转换模, 科学通报, 2005, 
(73) Reinspecting two types of El Niño: a new pair of Niño indices for improving real-time ENSO monitoring, 
(74) Diagnosing relationships between mean state biases and El Niño shortwave feedback in CMIP5 models, 
(75) Understanding bias in the evaporative damping of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in CMIP5 models, 
发表著作
( 1 ) 厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件判别方法, Identification method for El Niño/La Niña events, 气象出版社, 2017-03, 第 1 作者

科研活动

   
科研项目
( 1 ) 中高纬冬季大气低频流与天气涡旋相互作用的运动学机制研究, 负责人, 国家任务, 2014-01--2017-12
( 2 ) 季节内低频变化与我国10-30天强降水/降温过程预测方法研究, 负责人, 国家任务, 2014-01--2016-12
( 3 ) 两类ENSO的监测、分析和预测关键技术研究, 参与, 国家任务, 2015-01--2017-12
( 4 ) 季节内振荡对我国重大气象灾害的影响机理及延伸期预报方法研究, 参与, 国家任务, 2014-01--2019-06
( 5 ) 发展月季年客观预测关键技术, 负责人, 国家任务, 2017-01--2020-12
( 6 ) 热带外大气季节内振荡与天气涡旋的双向反馈机制研究, 负责人, 国家任务, 2018-01--2021-12
( 7 ) 基于过程扰动的多模式集合预测理论和方法研究, 参与, 国家任务, 2018-01--2022-12
( 8 ) 两类ENSO的动力学定量诊断及与年循环相互作用机制研究, 负责人, 国家任务, 2020-01--2023-12
( 9 ) 基于时间尺度分离的我国汛期雨带异常演变预测研究, 负责人, 国家任务, 2023-01--2026-12
( 10 ) 三极多圈层相互作用过程与气象灾害预报, 负责人, 研究所自主部署, 2021-04--2023-12